diff --git a/app/Http/Controllers/Sales/SalesDashboardController.php b/app/Http/Controllers/Sales/SalesDashboardController.php
index 363d6e9d..947329d9 100644
--- a/app/Http/Controllers/Sales/SalesDashboardController.php
+++ b/app/Http/Controllers/Sales/SalesDashboardController.php
@@ -446,13 +446,22 @@ private function calculatePartnerSummaryStats(array $partnerIds, int $currentUse
             ->where('status', TenantProspect::STATUS_CONVERTED)
             ->count();
 
-        // 매니저로서 받을 수당 (내가 매니저로 지정된 수당 중 하위 파트너 관련)
-        $expectedCommission = SalesCommission::where('manager_user_id', $currentUserId)
+        // 확정 수당 (SalesCommission에서)
+        $confirmedCommission = SalesCommission::where('manager_user_id', $currentUserId)
             ->whereHas('partner', function ($query) use ($partnerIds) {
                 $query->whereIn('user_id', $partnerIds);
             })
             ->sum('manager_commission');
 
+        // 예상 수당: 하위 파트너들이 등록한 가망고객의 가입비 × 5%
+        $prospectIds = TenantProspect::whereIn('registered_by', $partnerIds)->pluck('id')->toArray();
+        $managementIds = SalesTenantManagement::whereIn('tenant_prospect_id', $prospectIds)->pluck('id')->toArray();
+        $totalRegistrationFee = SalesContractProduct::whereIn('management_id', $managementIds)->sum('registration_fee');
+        $expectedFromFee = (int)($totalRegistrationFee * 0.05);
+
+        // 최종 예상 수당 (확정 + 예상 중 큰 값)
+        $expectedCommission = max($confirmedCommission, $expectedFromFee);
+
         return [
             'partner_count' => $partnerCount,
             'total_prospects' => $totalProspects,
@@ -485,14 +494,24 @@ private function getPartnerActivitiesDetail($recruitedPartners, int $currentUser
                 ->where('status', TenantProspect::STATUS_CONVERTED)
                 ->count();
 
-            // 이 파트너로 인한 나의 매니저 수당
-            $managerCommission = 0;
+            // 이 파트너로 인한 나의 매니저 수당 (확정 수당)
+            $confirmedCommission = 0;
             if ($salesPartner) {
-                $managerCommission = SalesCommission::where('manager_user_id', $currentUserId)
+                $confirmedCommission = SalesCommission::where('manager_user_id', $currentUserId)
                     ->where('partner_id', $salesPartner->id)
                     ->sum('manager_commission');
             }
 
+            // 예상 수당 계산: 파트너가 등록한 가망고객의 가입비 × 5%
+            $prospectIds = TenantProspect::where('registered_by', $partner->id)->pluck('id')->toArray();
+            $managementIds = SalesTenantManagement::whereIn('tenant_prospect_id', $prospectIds)->pluck('id')->toArray();
+            $totalRegistrationFee = SalesContractProduct::whereIn('management_id', $managementIds)->sum('registration_fee');
+            $expectedCommission = (int)($totalRegistrationFee * 0.05); // 5% 매니저 수당
+
+            // 최종 매니저 수당 (확정 + 예상 중 큰 값, 또는 합산)
+            $managerCommission = max($confirmedCommission, $expectedCommission);
+            $hasRegistrationFee = $totalRegistrationFee > 0;
+
             // 최근 활동 내역 (최근 전환된 테넌트 5개)
             $recentTenants = TenantProspect::where('registered_by', $partner->id)
                 ->where('status', TenantProspect::STATUS_CONVERTED)
@@ -532,6 +551,7 @@ private function getPartnerActivitiesDetail($recruitedPartners, int $currentUser
                 'active_prospects' => $activeProspects,
                 'conversions' => $conversions,
                 'manager_commission' => $managerCommission,
+                'has_registration_fee' => $hasRegistrationFee,
                 'status' => $status,
                 'recent_tenants' => $recentTenants,
                 'all_prospects' => $allProspects,
diff --git a/resources/views/sales/dashboard/partials/partner-activity.blade.php b/resources/views/sales/dashboard/partials/partner-activity.blade.php
index d12051b2..dfdcf1ab 100644
--- a/resources/views/sales/dashboard/partials/partner-activity.blade.php
+++ b/resources/views/sales/dashboard/partials/partner-activity.blade.php
@@ -139,7 +139,11 @@
                             </div>
                             <div class="text-center">
                                 <p class="text-gray-400 text-xs">예상수당</p>
-                                <p class="font-bold text-amber-600">₩{{ number_format($activity['manager_commission']) }}</p>
+                                @if($activity['has_registration_fee'])
+                                    <p class="font-bold text-amber-600">₩{{ number_format($activity['manager_commission']) }}</p>
+                                @else
+                                    <p class="font-medium text-gray-400 text-xs">계약전</p>
+                                @endif
                             </div>
                         </div>
                     </div>